Conclusions...
- By: Qwaider
- On:Wednesday, October 14, 2009 1:24:22 AM
- In:Thoughts
- Viewed: (5033) times
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No disrespect intended to anyone, but am I the only one who feels that many people appear to jump to conclusions rather quickly?
Scientifically speaking, conclusions can only be drawn after intensive research is done. This research takes into account the reproducibility of the issue being studied, among many other things.
For example, if you clap, and a bird flies to the right. You can't simply conclude that all birds will fly to the right when you clap. If you repeat the experiment a 1000 times and record your findings. You might be close to formulating a conclusion. But this is still not enough!
You will have to take many birds, from many species, in different stages of their life, in different surroundings and using all possible clap noises, from different directions over a period of time to be able to come close to coming up with a conclusion that can be considered scientific. Even the lack of a clear conclusion might be a conclusion by itself. You might end up with a percentage of cases. Or specific patterns in specific birds.
I don't mean to complicate things with this example, but truth be told many things in our lives are quite complicated to think that one thing that we did, caused something -completely unrelated- to happen!
I know I'm starting to sound like Dr House, in the latest episode where this billionaire thought his money was the curse behind his child's disease and his belief that giving up all his wealth will save his child's life
Many people believe in Karma and I don't want to dispute that, but what was interesting in the show is that at some point things got better after the guy lost his money. It was a weird coincidence, it was not scientific, and it had nothing to do with logic. Yet it undeniably happened (at least in the rich imagination of the authors). But perhaps similar things happened in real life as well.
Now I'm not saying no conclusions can be drawn from a single observation at all! For example, if you see a guy swallowing poison dying. You don't necessarily have to repeat the experiment a million times to prove it. However, someone might want to try it again to identify the cause of death, the dosage and possibly find antidote or a cure.
With that said, such conclusions can't be more obvious than in urban legends and old wife tales. Especially when most of the information is completely baseless, sometimes even defies common sense, or scientific evidence. Yet people have a passion to believing them.
Take for example "Watwitting" (No, not the online twitter clone); it's the act of using bat's blood on young girls to reduce hair growth on their skin. Just imagine the amount of pathogens that could be present in the animal's blood, let alone the fact that it is considered (and it truly is) unclean religiously. These actions border voodoo and black magic. But you'll find many people completely believing them. With some people even swearing they achieved great results!
Just think, if a baby had a single cut on her skin, this animal blood will immediately cause infection and might cause very serious health issues. Something many parents completely disregard. Not only that, but they don't even consider the scientific evidence on the genetic nature of attribute like hair growth. There's nothing, short of a genetic alteration, that could make any difference in these attributes. Smearing dead animal blood will do absolutely nothing to reduce hair growth. But will certainly cause health risks.
Same goes for so many things. Completely unsubstantiated, yet people believe in them, and draw the most absurd conclusions. Based on nothing more than very limited observations with very little data and absolutely no scientific proof, or detailed analysis.
So next time you proclaim something as the undeniable, unequivocal truth. Be prepared to prove it.
Memories....
Also, there are long things that you will end up reading in a minute, and a few lines that you might struggle with for hours!
So... :) Any change of heart on that conclusion?
I think the writers were aimed at sending a subtle mesaage. It is not the mony per se or karma, it is the chain of reactions that took place after him giving up his money. The discussion that led to house's aha moment might not have happened if the guy didn't give up his money.
Actually It's Mai's TV show. She tortures me with it :) (but secretly I like it too, don't tell her)
But looking at the larger picture I understand where you're coming from, at least when it comes to work or pointing fingers or legal cases.
What I wanna know is who in their right mind is gonna go find a bat, kill it, and then use its blood? This sounds like a scene from one of the fast growing supernatural phenomenons thats spreading like a virus on television.